This is the second in a series of category predictions using our Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard.

What is the forecasted growth for the Grocery & Gourmet Food category on Amazon US through 2024? How should brands in this category prepare their growth strategies? Over the next few months, we will be estimating specific categories’ 2024 revenue using our latest free tool, the Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard.

Grocery & Gourmet Food

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1. What is the projected growth for the Grocery & Gourmet Food category on Amazon US for 2024?
   • The Grocery & Gourmet Food category is forecasted to reach $20B in 2024 sales, up 8.9% year-over-year. We’ve seen the search volume for this category continue to rise throughout 2023, achieving a 46.6% YoY growth in search volume in January 2024. As consumers turn to Amazon for more CPG products, a trend we’ve been monitoring over the past few months, the potential for brands in the Grocery category continues to expand and is reflected in the 2024 forecast. 
2. How does the growth forecast for the Grocery & Gourmet Food category compare to Amazon’s overall growth trajectory?
   • Amazon is forecasted to grow 19.9% in 2024, whereas Grocery & Gourmet Food is forecasted to grow 8.9% placing it behind the overall site’s pace. This also places it slightly behind the Baby Products growth trajectory, which is forecasted to grow 21.5% in 2024. However, Baby Products is only predicted to bring in $14.9 billion in sales versus Grocery’s $20 billion. 
3. What quarter is forecasted to generate the highest revenue for the Grocery & Gourmet Food category?
   • Q4 is on track to bring in $5.4B. Q4 is often the biggest revenue driver for many categories across Amazon with events like the Prime Big Deal Days, Turkey 5, and other Holiday Shopping. 
4. What month is forecasted to generate the highest revenue for the Grocery & Gourmet Food category?
   • December is predicted to bring in $1.9B in the category.
5. What month is projected to see the highest year-over-year growth for the category?
   • April is forecasted to have the most significant spike of +12.5% YoY. 

Grocery & Gourmet Food > Pantry Staples

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1. What is the projected growth for the Pantry Staples subcategory on Amazon US throughout 2024?
   • The Pantry Staples subcategory is forecasted to reach $4.8B in 2024 sales, up 16.6% YoY.
2. What is the forecasted pace of growth for Pantry Staples compared to the overall growth of Grocery & Gourmet Food?
   • The subcategory is projected to drive $4.8B in sales with 16.6% YoY growth compared to the 8.9% growth projected for Grocery & Gourmet Food as a whole. The subcategory is pacing far ahead of its parent category, a trend we also highlighted in the Baby Products forecast. 
3. What quarter is forecasted to generate the highest revenue for the Pantry Staples subcategory?
   • Similar to its parent category, Q4 is forecasted to be the highest sales quarter for Pantry Staples with an estimated $1.3B in revenue. 
4. What month is forecasted to generate the highest revenue for the Pantry Staples subcategory?
   • December is projected to be the biggest month, driving $456.4 million in sales. 
5. Which month is projected to experience the most significant year-over-year growth for the subcategory?
   • October will drive an impressive 21.8% YoY growth for Pantry Staples.

Grocery & Gourmet Food > Snack Foods

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1. What is the projected growth for the Snack Foods subcategory on Amazon US throughout 2024?
   • Snack Foods is forecasted to reach $2.3B in 2024 sales, up 18% YoY.
2. What is the forecasted pace of growth for Snack Foods compared to the overall growth of Grocery & Gourmet Food?
   • Snack Foods is pacing to grow 18% YoY compared to its parent category at 8.9%. 
3. What quarter is forecasted to generate the highest revenue for the Snack Foods subcategory?
   • Q4 sales are estimated to be the highest at $617.1M
4. What month is forecasted to generate the highest revenue for the Snack Foods subcategory?
   • We’re seeing continual growth throughout the year, with December peaking as the highest revenue-driving month for this subcategory, estimating $209 million in sales. 
5. Which month is projected to experience the most significant year-over-year growth for the subcategory?
   • November is forecasted to see the most significant growth YoY at 21%. 

Methodology

All forecasted sales figures are accessible through Momentum Commerce’s new Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard. This free tool provides monthly Amazon US retail sales forecasts across hundreds of Amazon categories through the end of 2024. Revenue forecasts across thousands of deeper subcategory levels are available to Momentum Commerce’s services team and customers to further empower strategic direction and decision-making.

The forecasts and estimates within the Amazon Sales Forecast Dashboard are based on Momentum Commerce’s proprietary analysis and modeling, which incorporates multiple sources of Amazon US retail revenue data. Momentum Commerce regularly re-evaluates both the underlying data and models to ensure forecasts reflect seasonality, changes in observed revenue, and other factors.

Do you have questions? Reach out to us at hello@momentumcommerce.com